Is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) failing? In a word...maybe.
Iran is already playing the game with the IAEA to delay and stall while it completes its program which it says does not exist. And yesterday the foreign ministers of the UK, France, and Germany send a letter to the Mullahs asking them to come clean and prove to the world that they aren’t going to go nuclear. Iran’s reply? Something to the effect of “Well, North Korea pulled out, and lots of other countries have never entered the treaty in the first place.”
Oh great...they’re stomping their feet. “Well if they can do it we can too!”
JFK warned way back in 1960 (during his TV debate with Nixon) that by 1975, nearly 15 countries would have nuclear weapons capabilities if curbs were not put in place. This was the same year that France joined the club and even four years before China did. When you count Israel, India, Pakistan, then tack on North Korea and Iran because they’re trying real hard to get them, we’re starting to approach that number now.
After the NPT was entered into force in 1970, things seemed pretty stable for another twenty years, and then the Soviet Union fell. After that, countries which probably carried secret ambitions all along started to feel more emboldened to embark on their little adventures.
PREDICTION: North Korea will be stupid enough to test by the end of the year. And we can’t tell for sure how far along Iran is. God, I hope I’m wrong.